K\u00fcresel piyasalar, ge\u00e7en hafta merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etmesi ve artan resesyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131yla negatif bir seyir izlemesinin ard\u0131ndan, gelecek hafta g\u00f6zler yo\u011fun veri g\u00fcndeminin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 nispeten sakin ge\u00e7mesine kar\u015f\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (Fed) faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalarda hareketlilik artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileriyle \u0130ngiltere, \u0130sve\u00e7, \u0130svi\u00e7re ve Norve\u00e7 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke merkez bankas\u0131 Fed’in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 takip etti.<\/p>\n
Gelecek d\u00f6nemde de faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi sinyalini veren merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan resesyon endi\u015feleri derinle\u015firken, bu durum piyasalarda risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmelerle pay ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar h\u0131zland\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta dolar talebinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131yla dolar endeksindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD’nin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi Nisan 2010’dan bu yana ilk kez y\u00fczde 3,83’\u00fc test ederken, dolar endeksi 113,2 ile May\u0131s 2002’den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Emtia piyasalar\u0131nda ise artan resesyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131 ve dolardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisiyle sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131. Alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 haftal\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1,9 de\u011fer kaybederek 1.644 dolarla Nisan 2020’den bu yana en k\u00f6t\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 da ge\u00e7en hafta y\u00fczde 5,4 azalarak 84,6 dolarla 8 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden kapand\u0131.<\/p>\n
– Fed agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etti<\/p>\n
Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC), federal fonlama oran\u0131n\u0131 beklentiler do\u011frultusunda 75 baz puan art\u0131rarak 2008’den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan y\u00fczde 3,00-3,25 band\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dcyelerin gelecek d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin projeksiyonlar\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik ve yava\u015f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ederken, enflasyonun ancak 2025’te Fed’in y\u00fczde 2’lik hedefine geri d\u00f6nece\u011fini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
Yetkililerin federal fonlama oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin medyan beklentileri ise y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,4 ve 2023 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,6 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu da bankan\u0131n kas\u0131m ve aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi toplant\u0131larda en az 125 baz puan ile agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. G\u00fcncellenen projeksiyonlarla faiz indirimi ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 i\u00e7in 2024’e i\u015faret edilmesiyle bu y\u00f6nde ilk hamlenin gelecek y\u0131l yap\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentileri de \u015fimdilik rafa kalkm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulunan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, bankan\u0131n enflasyonu y\u00fczde 2 hedefine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve bunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirene kadar m\u00fccadele edeceklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Powell, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmenin ac\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak, “Fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamam\u0131z gerekiyor, yoksa sonra daha fazla ac\u0131 \u00e7ekeriz. Ke\u015fke bunu yapman\u0131n ac\u0131s\u0131z bir yolu olsayd\u0131 ama yok. Bizim ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan enflasyonda anlaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131. Bunu g\u00f6rmek istiyoruz.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.
\nGelecek d\u00f6nem faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Powell, toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya karar vermeye devam edeceklerini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan, para piyasas\u0131 fiyatlamalar\u0131nda Fed’in gelecek ay da 75 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fi ihtimali y\u00fczde 73’e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Hafta genelinde a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin de kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller vermesi dikkati \u00e7ekerken, New York borsas\u0131 3,5 ay\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Dow Jones endeksi y\u00fczde 4,65’lik, Nasdaq endeksi y\u00fczde 5,07’lik ve S&P 500 endeksi y\u00fczde 4,65’lik kay\u0131pla 13 Haziran haftas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden kapand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar gelecek hafta ABD’de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri, 2. \u00e7eyrek nihai b\u00fcy\u00fcme, \u00e7ekirdek ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ve ask\u0131da konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 verilerini takip edecek.<\/p>\n
– Avrupa’da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m yar\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/p>\n
Avrupa taraf\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en hafta genelinde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip edilirken, s\u00fcregelen enerji krizine tar\u0131msal \u00fcretimde belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden olabilecek g\u00fcbre tedariki problemleri de eklendi.<\/p>\n
Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda artan jeopolitik riskler de g\u00fcndemin oda\u011f\u0131ndaki yerini korudu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), politika faizini 50 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 2,25 ile son 14 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Arka arkaya 7. kez faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na giden Banka’n\u0131n karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sterlin\/dolar paritesi 1,0840’la 37 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 da politika faizini 75 baz puan art\u0131rarak 8 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren negatif faiz d\u00f6nemine son verirken, ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan Norve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika faizini y\u00fczde 1,75’ten y\u00fczde 2,25’e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan \u0130sve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Riksbank), 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6ren enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini beklentilerin \u00fczerinde 100 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 1,75’e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kararlar\u0131n etkisiyle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi \u0130ngiltere’de 14 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u0130svi\u00e7re’de 3 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Almanya’n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi de Aral\u0131k 2011’den sonra ilk kez y\u00fczde 2,1’in \u00fczerini test etti.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131 para piyasalar\u0131nda, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (ECB) ekim ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 75 baz puan art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 3’\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri fiyatlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa’da y\u00fcksek faiz d\u00f6neminin gelecekte devam edece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentiler, halihaz\u0131rda enerji kriziyle m\u00fccadele edilen ve enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00f6lgede resesyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu endi\u015felerle Stoxx 600 endeksi \u015eubat 2021’den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Haftal\u0131k bazda Almanya’da DAX 40 endeksi y\u00fczde 3,59 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle Kas\u0131m 2020’den bu yana en k\u00f6t\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirirken, Fransa’da CAC 40 endeksi y\u00fczde 4,84 ve \u0130ngiltere’de FTSE 100 endeksi de y\u00fczde 3,01 de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla 28 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden kapand\u0131. Avro\/dolar paritesi de 0,9668 ile Eyl\u00fcl 2002’den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye geriledi<\/p>\n
Avrupa taraf\u0131nda gelecek haftan\u0131n veri g\u00fcndeminde Almanya’da Ifo i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcven endeksi ve i\u015fsizlik, Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nde ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksi ve reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi, \u0130ngiltere’de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari denge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar pazartesi ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 takip edecek.<\/p>\n
– BoJ, negatif faiz uygulayan tek merkez bankas\u0131 konumuna geldi<\/p>\n
Asya taraf\u0131nda ge\u00e7en hafta Fed’in \u015fahin duru\u015funun aksine BoJ, faizlerde ve ultra gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmedi.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylece d\u00fcnya genelinde negatif faiz uygulayan tek merkez bankas\u0131 konumuna gelen Banka, yeni tip koronavir\u00fcs (Kovid-19) salg\u0131n\u0131na y\u00f6nelik devreye al\u0131nan \u00f6zel fon tedariki program\u0131n\u0131n da kademeli olarak kald\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda BoJ’un, ultra gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 ve faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmesi beklenmiyordu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n bankan\u0131n, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 zay\u0131flayan yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Kovid-19 tedbirlerini kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ve para birimini destekleyici tedbirler alabilece\u011fi belirtiliyordu.<\/p>\n
Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Haruhiko Kuroda, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeyi \u015fimdilik de\u011ferlendirmediklerini, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc parasal gev\u015femeye kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde devam edeceklerini vurgulayarak, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck ajandalar\u0131n\u0131 gelecek 2-3 y\u0131lda de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmediklerini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
BoJ’un “ultra gev\u015fek politikaya devam” sinyali ile 145,9’a kadar \u00e7\u0131kan dolar\/Japon yeni paritesi, m\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 140,4’e kadar geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u00dclkede temmuz ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,4 artan \u00e7ekirdek T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) de a\u011fustosta y\u00fczde 2,8 ile Ekim 2014’ten bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini kaydetti. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde man\u015fet T\u00dcFE ise y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015fla 1991’den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in taraf\u0131nda ise salg\u0131n tedbirleri ile kapanan baz\u0131 kentler hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 ekonomiye destek kapsam\u0131nda piyasaya yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 milyar yuan likidite enjekte etti. Banka ayr\u0131ca, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 2,25’ten y\u00fczde 2,15’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc, y\u00fczde 3,65 d\u00fczeyinde bulunan referans temel kredi faizi oran\u0131n\u0131 ise de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmelerle ge\u00e7en hafta genelinde Japonya’da Nikkei 225 endeksi y\u00fczde 1,50, \u00c7in’de \u015eanghay bile\u015fik endeksi y\u00fczde 1,22, G\u00fcney Kore’de Kospi endeksi y\u00fczde 3,9 ve Hong Kong’da Hang Seng endeksi y\u00fczde 4,4 de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n
Asya’da gelecek hafta Japonya’da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi, i\u015fsizlik, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve sanayi \u00fcretimi, \u00c7in’de ise imalat sanayi ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI) verileri izlenecek.<\/p>\n
– TCMB, \u00fcst \u00fcste 2’nci ay\u0131nda da politika faizini indirdi<\/p>\n
Yurt i\u00e7i piyasalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ge\u00e7en hafta T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) karar\u0131n\u0131 takip ederken, Banka y\u00fczde 13 d\u00fczeyinde bulunan politika faizini y\u00fczde 12’ye \u00e7ekti. B\u00f6ylece \u00fcst \u00fcste 2’nci ay\u0131nda da politika faizini 100 baz puan indiren Banka’n\u0131n karar metninde k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik belirsizliklerin ve jeopolitik risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n destekleyici olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemine i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
Bankac\u0131l\u0131k hisseleri \u00fczerindeki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fi hafta boyunca, BIST 50 endeksinde yer alan paylar i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f i\u015flemlerinde yukar\u0131 ad\u0131m kural\u0131 uygulamas\u0131na devam edildi.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel \u00e7apta risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle ge\u00e7en hafta Borsa \u0130stanbul’da dalgal\u0131 seyir de s\u00fcrerken, BIST 100 endeksi haftal\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,83 gerileyerek 3.281,61 puandan kapand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar\/TL ise 18,4210 ile zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc haftay\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,9 art\u0131\u015fla 18,4139’dan tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yurt i\u00e7inde gelecek haftan\u0131n veri g\u00fcndeminde reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi, kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ve ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksi verileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Gelecek hafta cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&P’nin T\u00fcrkiye’nin not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ge\u00e7en hafta Fed’in ard\u0131ndan \u0130ngiltere, \u0130sve\u00e7, \u0130svi\u00e7re ve Norve\u00e7 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke merkez bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesiyle resesyon endi\u015feleri de derinle\u015firken, pay ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar h\u0131zland\u0131, dolara talep artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"2","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"0","share_position":"hide","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"0","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"2","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"no-crop","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-715"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"coauthors":[92],"class_list":["post-93234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"yoast_head":"\n